Empirical Analysis of 2014 Education Budget

1. Analysis of 2014 Education Budget

2. This analysis takes a look at the 2014 Budgetary allocation to the Education Sector. Allocations to the Departments and Agencies are also reviewed in order to identified the most funded Agency. A comparative analysis is also carried on this and past budgets with the view of observing if there are effort to measure up to some of UNESCO’s recommendations.

3. Government Budget to the Education Sector is usually shared among the following: Agencies / Parastatals Main Ministry of Education Universities Polytechnics Colleges of Education Government Colleges Technical Schools

4. Total 2014 National Budget: N4,642,960,000,000 Total Allocation to Education: N493,458,130,268 % Allocation to Education: 10.63%

5. Components of Allocation to Education: STATUTORY TRANSFERS Universal Basic Education (UBEC) RECURRENT (NON-DEBT) EXPENDITURE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE MINISTRY/ DEPARMENT/ AGENCY STATUTORY = 70,470,000,000 RECURRENT = 373,452,095,037 CAPITAL = 49,536,035,231 TOTAL RECURRENT TOTAL CAPITAL TOTAL ALLOCATION 443,922,095,037 49,536,035,231 493,458,130,268

6. Recurrent Expenditure : Spending by the Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDA) of Government on Salaries, Pensions & Overheads. Capital Expenditure is used to provide infrastructure such as roads, water and power; fund educational services such as schools, colleges and universities; and provide healthcare facilities and services among others. UNDP Recommends United Nations Development Programme recommendation “Allocate 70% of Budget to Capital Expenditure and 30% to Recurrent Expenditure.”

7. TOTAL RECURRENT TOTAL CAPITAL TOTAL ALLOCATION N443,922,095,037 N49,536,035,231 89.96% N493,458,130,268 10.04% About 90% of total allocation to Education would be spent on Salaries, Pensions & Overheads while 10% goes to Infrastructure, Educational services and Healthcare facilities. Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recurrent % 77.02% 81.44% 81.71% 78.15% 80.91% 86.67% 71.38% 91.09% 88.25% 85.87% Capital % 22.98% 18.56% 18.29% 21.85% 19.09% 13.33% 28.62% 8.91% 11.75% 14.13% Year 2004, 2007 and 2010 allocated 22.98%, 21.85% and 23.62% respectively to Capital Expenditure

8. From the foregoing; more money are spent in servicing Salaries, Pensions & Overheads, which implies there are many Staff on the payroll of the Education Ministries. By implication also, it means there should be enough Teachers / Educators in all arms of our Education systems – Basic, Secondary and Tertiary. However, this is not so! Nigeria is in dire need of Teachers. 10,500,000 of these School-age Children are from Nigeria

9. How Many Teachers Are Needed? Of the countries reported with Teacher shortage, 3 would need to recruit more than 200,000 teachers in total by the year 2015. In Nigeria, more than one-half of the demand (212,083) is associated with the need to expand teaching workforces by creating new posts. Total UPE Teachers needed by 2015 in Nigeria is 786,161 Teachers needed in 2015: Teacher in Stock (2010): Total Recruitment Needed: 574,078 375,479 786,161 New Posts: 212,083 Replacement for Attrition: 163,396

10.  Most of our Universities have less than 10% of their budgetS allocated to Capital Expenditure, except some of the new Federal Universities, Kebbi, Gashua and Gusau that have over 30% for Capital Expenditure.  Similarly, most Polytechnics allocated less than 10% to Capital Expenditure.  The Federal Ministry Headquarters allocated 65.29% to Capital Expenditure, Federal Government Girls College, Tambuwal (75.7%), National Library of Nigeria (66.61%), Federal Science Technical College, Dayi (56.58%) and FSTC, Michika (50.79%).  National Education Research Development Council (NERDC) allocated 25.71% to Capital Expenditure.  Joint Admissions Matriculation Board (JAMB) allocated 0.98% to Capital Expenditure.

11. "We are very worried that over 70% of the budget is actually going for recurrent expenditure and less than 30% on capital expenditure. No country develops under such provisions because what grows a country or builds the economy is the amount of investments you are making on infrastructure and other structural issues that you required to strengthen your economy”. Actionaid Country Director, Hussaini Abdu

12. How does this 2014 Education Budget compare with past years?

13. Education Allocation from 1999 to 2014 Year Recurrent Capital UBEC Total Total Budget % 1999 2,700,000,000 – – 2,700,000,000 60,549,835,647 4.46 2000 29,514,932,709 11,425,730,621 – 40,940,663,330 470,009,971,781 8.71 2001 38,983,776,900 24,800,000,000 – 63,783,776,900 894,214,805,186 7.13 2002 51,335,499,300 22,100,000,000 – 73,435,499,300 2003 61,726,621,039 13,981,206,481 – 75,707,827,520 2004 72,217,886,839 21,550,000,000 – 93,767,886,839 2005 92,594,737,799 27,440,790,000 27,800,000,000 147,835,527,799 1,799,938,243,138 8.21 2006 129,421,908,835 35,791,763,831 30,480,000,000 195,693,672,666 1,876,302,363,351 10.43 2007 137,478,261,081 48,293,513,848 35,300,000,000 221,071,774,929 2,266,394,423,477 9.75 2008 162,694,071,909 47,750,746,670 39,700,000,000 250,144,818,579 2,492,076,718,937 10.04 2009 183,014,340,686 33,625,096,425 35,565,376,384 252,204,813,495 2,870,510,042,679 8.79 2010 198,084,948,657 97,208,440,839 44,341,401,504 339,634,791,000 4,608,616,278,213 7.37 2011 304,392,631,774 35,088,896,911 54,328,643,090 393,810,171,775 4,226,191,559,259 9.32 2012 345,091,448,178 55,056,589,805 68,237,452,545 468,385,490,528 4,749,100,821,170 9.86 2013 360,822,928,272 71,937,785,489 76,279,000,000 509,039,713,761 4,987,220,425,601 10.21 2014 373,452,095,037 49,536,035,231 70,470,000,000 493,458,130,268 4,642,960,000,000 10.63 1,064,801,253,520 6.90 976,254,543,375 7.75 1,790,848,344,588 5.24

14. Observations:  2014 budget is lower than 2013, however due to the reduction in total budget from N4.987tn to N4.642tn, 2014 Education budget got 10.63% compared with 10.21% of 2013.  The percentage increase is almost negligible. At thus rate Nigeria would be rated poorly and elongating the catch-up time frame with rest of the world that are allocating over 20% of their budget to Education.  Nigeria need to increase her budget by 2% yearly in order to eventually allocate 20% by 2018 and 30% by 2023.  The Statutory allocation to UBEC dropped from 76.2Bn in 2013 to 70.5B in 2014.  Putting inflation into consideration, with a Deflator of 3.71 in 2014, the Real value of the 2014 Education budget is N133Bn compare to N141Bn in 2013.  While more funds are required the issue of Governance need to be address in order to avoid incessant strikes by academic unions.

15. The Federal Government has decided to inject N1.1tn into public universities in the next 5years – N220Bn yearly starting from 2014. While this is commendable, the University System is just one arm of the entire Education System of Nigeria, what is the extra funding plan for the Polytechnics, Colleges of Education, Technical Schools, Basic Education?

16. Summary of 2014 Budget Components Recurrent Expenditure (Salaries, Pensions & Overhead costs) Capital Expenditure (Infrastructure, Educational Services & Health) Statutory Transfer (UBEC) 75.68% 10.04% 14.28%

17. Data source: - Nigeria Budget office (www.budgetoffice.gov.ng) Analysis by: Wale Micaiah (M.sc., CISM, CCNP-Sec, MCSA) e: walegate@yahoo.com m: 08078001800 b: walemicaiah.blog.com w. www.statisense.com Freely share, freely use and freely acknowledge the source – © Wale Micaiah